III.

Armed Conflict

Following the declarations of independence at the end of June 1991, a major armed conflict ensued. Coercive terror was the central characteristic of the conflict, which had three theatres: Slovenia, Croatia, and Bosnia. The conflict in Slovenia lasted only ten days and was generally free of terrorization. The same was not true in Croatia and Bosnia, both of which were subject to the Serbian attempt, dominated by the Serbian president Slobodan Milošević, to establish new borders. This entailed the killing, terrorization, and forcible expulsion of non-Serbs in order to create a set of contiguous territories with new boundaries reserved only for Serbs. The euphemistic though shocking label given by some to this process was “ethnic cleansing”.

As the SFRY dissolved and conflict broke out, the overwhelming balance of power lay with the Serbian side. A major factor in this was the role of the federal armed force, the Yugoslav People’s Army (Jugoslovenska Narodna Armija or JNA). This force was predominantly Serb (60 per cent of the officer corps), and as a result all but a few elements joined with the Serbian side. In Croatia and Bosnia, Serbian forces had far greater firepower, above all in terms of heavy artillery, tanks, and air power. These forces complemented smaller local Serb groups and special paramilitary groups organized by the Serbian security service.

Because of their superiority, Serbian forces were able to take control of more than a quarter of Croatian territory in 1991, and in 1992 around two thirds of Bosnia, laying siege to the Bosnian capital Sarajevo. However, the Serbian side lacked manpower to complement its armoury and so became overstretched in its efforts to control territory as the conflict developed and the armies of Bosnia and particularly Croatia became stronger. During 1993, although putative allies, Croatian forces and the predominantly Muslim Bosnian army fought with each other for more than nine months for territory in Bosnia. Croatian forces initially had the advantage, but as the year progressed, they were beaten back. By the beginning of 1994, United States diplomacy had managed to align these forces again, although difficulties remained.

By the summer of 1995, Serbian overstretch and the greater strength of Croatian and Bosnian forces meant that the balance of power had shifted. Through offensives in May and August 1995, they retook control of almost all Serbian-controlled land in Croatia and expelled the historical ethnic Serb communities, just as ethnic Croats had been expelled at the beginning of the war; joint Croatian-Bosnian operations in May, August, and September ejected Serbian forces from large areas of western Bosnia, as well as the ethnic Serb communities, as had happened to Muslims and Croats in the early phases of hostilities.